Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0002

WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep · 30% off · 2 weeks · 2025-09-06 to 2025-09-13 · scan_based pure subsidy

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

6,949Gross promoted4,841− Subsidized baseline2,108= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$5,049
Accrued trade cost
$4,900
Return on spend
1.03×
Giveaway share
63%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →