Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0016

COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · endcap · 11.44% off · 3 weeks · 2025-04-26 to 2025-05-10 · scan_based unplanned

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

10,644Gross promoted4,970− Subsidized baseline5,675= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$12,570
Accrued trade cost
$7,983
Return on spend
1.57×
Giveaway share
41%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →