Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

← Back to the Scorecard

PRE-0040

KROGER · CHP-DG-007 · digital_coupon · 27.32% off · 2 weeks · 2025-05-24 to 2025-05-31 · off_invoice phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

2,533Gross promoted2,500− Subsidized baseline33= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$77
Accrued trade cost
$1,878
Return on spend
0.04×
Giveaway share

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →