Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

← Back to the Scorecard

PRE-0683

WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · ad_circular · 16.12% off · 1 week · 2024-12-14 to 2024-12-14 · scan_based

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

4,832Gross promoted2,591− Subsidized baseline2,241= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$5,814
Accrued trade cost
$2,936
Return on spend
1.98×
Giveaway share
50%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →