Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

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PRE-1907

COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · endcap · 15.32% off · 3 weeks · 2025-05-17 to 2025-05-31 · scan_based

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

8,604Gross promoted4,158− Subsidized baseline4,446= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$8,960
Accrued trade cost
$6,084
Return on spend
1.47×
Giveaway share
46%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →